Critical thresholds for budget consolidations: a semi-parametric approach
Source of Publication
Applied Economics Letters
© 2015 Taylor & Francis. While a lot is known regarding the determinants of successful fiscal consolidations, previous studies do not allow for the possibility of nonlinearities in factors impacting budget consolidations. By using a semi-parametric modelling approach employing penalized spline regression on a data-set for 28 OECD countries for the period 1978–2007, we demonstrate the existence of critical thresholds not only for the initial debt level but also for the accompanying monetary policy. The latter result shows when monetary policy matters most and suggests, counter to previous studies, that too lax a monetary policy decreases the success probability of a fiscal adjustment episode.
fiscal consolidations, generalized additive models, monetary policy, nonparametric methods
Arin, K. Peren; Kuhlenkasper, Torben; and Nandialath, Anup Menon, "Critical thresholds for budget consolidations: a semi-parametric approach" (2015). All Works. 1125.
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