Document Type

Article

Source of Publication

Infectious Disease Modelling

Publication Date

1-1-2021

Abstract

© 2020 The Authors The outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) attracted worldwide attention. It has posed a significant challenge for the global economies, especially the healthcare sector. Even with a robust healthcare system, countries were not prepared for the ramifications of COVID-19. Several statistical, dynamic, and mathematical models of the COVID-19 outbreak including the SEIR model have been developed to analyze the infection its transmission dynamics. The objective of this research is to use public data to study the properties associated with the COVID-19 pandemic to develop a dynamic hybrid model based on SEIRD and ascertainment rate with automatically selected parameters. The proposed model consists of two parts: the modified SEIRD dynamic model and ARIMA models. We fit SEIRD model parameters against historical values of infected, recovered and deceased population divided by ascertainment rate, which, in turn, is also a parameter of the model. Residuals of the first model for infected, recovered, and deceased populations are then corrected using ARIMA models. The model can analyze the input data in real-time and provide long- and short-term forecasts with confidence intervals. The model was tested and validated on the US COVID statistics dataset from the COVID Tracking Project. For validation, we use unseen recent statistical data. We use five common measures to estimate model prediction ability: MAE, MSE, MLSE, Normalized MAE, and Normalized MSE. We proved a great model ability to make accurate predictions of infected, recovered, and deceased patients. The output of the model can be used by the government, private sectors, and policymakers to reduce health and economic risks significantly improved consumer credit scoring.

ISSN

2468-0427

Publisher

Elsevier BV

Volume

6

First Page

98

Last Page

111

Disciplines

Medicine and Health Sciences

Keywords

ARIMA, Coronavirus, COVID 19, Hybrid model, SEIRD model

Scopus ID

85097468552

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.

Indexed in Scopus

yes

Open Access

yes

Open Access Type

Gold: This publication is openly available in an open access journal/series

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