Modelling asymmetric volatility in oil prices under structural breaks

Document Type

Article

Source of Publication

Energy Economics

Publication Date

3-1-2017

Abstract

© 2017 Elsevier B.V. This paper shows that accounting for endogenously determined structural breaks within an asymmetric GARCH model reduces volatility persistence in oil prices. More importantly, we find that both good and bad news have significantly more impact on volatility if structural breaks are accounted for in a model. Thus, previous studies have significantly underestimated the impact of news on volatility as they have inadvertently ignored these structural breaks in volatility. Our empirical results suggest that it is best to include both asymmetric effects and structural breaks in a GARCH model to accurately estimate oil price volatility dynamics. Our results have important practical implications not only for option valuation and hedging decisions but also have major consequences for broader financial markets, the energy industry, and the overall economy.

ISSN

0140-9883

Publisher

Elsevier B.V.

Volume

63

First Page

227

Last Page

233

Disciplines

Business

Keywords

GARCH, Oil volatility, Structural breaks

Scopus ID

85015327619

Indexed in Scopus

yes

Open Access

no

Link to Full Text

Share

COinS