An Improved Equation for TBS and ADD: Establishing a Reliable Postmortem Interval Framework for Casework and Experimental Studies
Document Type
Article
Source of Publication
Journal of Forensic Sciences
Publication Date
1-1-2016
Abstract
© 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences. Megyesi et al.'s (J Forensic Sci, 2005, 50, 618) paper was important to forensic anthropology as it introduced a quantitative framework for estimating time since death in human cadavers, based upon physical appearance by way of scoring on a novel scale. However, errors concerning rounding, temperature scale, and incorrect use of a statistical regression model render their predictive formula unusable. Based upon only their more reliable data, a more appropriate regression model to predict accumulated degree days (ADD) from total body score (TBS) is presented. The new model is also a superior fit (r2 = 0.91) and produces markedly narrower confidence intervals than the original, which also allowed impossible, negative ADD values. Explanations of the shortcomings in the original analysis and calculations are presented, which it is hoped will help forensic scientists avoid making similar mistakes.
DOI Link
ISSN
Publisher
Blackwell Publishing Inc.
Volume
61
First Page
201
Last Page
207
Disciplines
Life Sciences
Keywords
Accumulated degree days, Decomposition, Forensic science, Forensic taphonomy, Inverse prediction, Regression models, Statistical models
Scopus ID
Recommended Citation
Moffatt, Colin; Simmons, Tal; and Lynch-Aird, Jeanne, "An Improved Equation for TBS and ADD: Establishing a Reliable Postmortem Interval Framework for Casework and Experimental Studies" (2016). All Works. 459.
https://zuscholars.zu.ac.ae/works/459
Indexed in Scopus
yes
Open Access
no