Changes in Shares Outstanding and Country Stock Returns Around the World

Document Type

Article

Source of Publication

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions and Money

Publication Date

11-1-2023

Abstract

Motivated by stock-level evidence of the issuance anomalies, we examine whether a similar effect drives the cross-section of country stock returns. To this end, we investigate six decades of data from 67 markets. The changes in aggregate shares outstanding negatively predict future country equity returns. The quintile of markets with the highest share increase underperforms their low-issuance counterparts by 0.85% per month. The effect is distinctly robust and cannot be subsumed by known risk factors. The observed pattern complies with the mispricing interpretation, and high arbitrage constraints augment its magnitude. Finally, the issuance premium may be harvested with exchange-traded funds, paving the way for a viable country selection strategy.

ISSN

1042-0612

Publisher

Elsevier BV

First Page

101883

Last Page

101883

Disciplines

Business

Keywords

shares outstanding, equity issuance, international stock markets, equity anomalies, country equity returns, the cross-section of stock returns, return predictability, asset pricing

Indexed in Scopus

no

Open Access

no

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