Document Type
Article
Source of Publication
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Publication Date
11-28-2024
Abstract
The present study assesses the climate of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in detail, focusing on the historical and future warming trends in the region. The assessment incorporates data from observations, reanalyses, and statistically downscaled climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6. Since the pre-industrial era, the observed average climate in the MENA has warmed by 1.5°C and is on the brink of exceeding 2°C. The reanalysis data suggest that the regional warming over some MENA sub-regions is three times faster than the global average. By the end of the 21st century, the Arabian Peninsula is projected to warm to 2.6°C ± 0.57°C and 7.6°C ± 1.53°C under low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, respectively. Distinct warming hotspots emerge over the Arabian Peninsula and Algeria in summer and over Mauritania in West Africa and the Elburz Mountains in Iran in winter. The summer hotspot over the Arabian Peninsula has already warmed by more than 2°C and can potentially warm to approximately 9°C under the high-emission scenario. As global warming progresses to 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0°C, the average temperature over the MENA land is projected to increase by 2.3°C ± 0.18°C, 3.0°C ± 0.22°C, 4.6°C ± 0.26°C, and 6.1°C ± 0.31°C, respectively. The 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0°C warming levels over the MENA are expected to predate those of the global mean by two or three decades. Natural climate fluctuations also significantly influence the region's warming, contributing to temperature extremes.
DOI Link
ISSN
Volume
129
Issue
22
Disciplines
Life Sciences
Keywords
Arabian Peninsula, climate change, CMIP5 and CMIP6, global and regional warming, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Paris Agreement temperature goals
Scopus ID
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Recommended Citation
Malik, Abdul; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Mostamandi, Suleiman; Parajuli, Sagar; Lelieveld, Jos; Zittis, George; Ahsan, Muhammad Sheraz; Atique, Luqman; and Usman, Muhammad, "Accelerated Historical and Future Warming in the Middle East and North Africa" (2024). All Works. 6934.
https://zuscholars.zu.ac.ae/works/6934
Indexed in Scopus
yes
Open Access
yes
Open Access Type
Hybrid: This publication is openly available in a subscription-based journal/series