Economic complexity and CO2 emissions in gulf cooperation council countries: Does institutional quality matter?

Document Type

Article

Source of Publication

Development and Sustainability in Economics and Finance

Publication Date

6-1-2026

Abstract

This research explores how CO₂ emissions respond differently to changes in economic complexity within the GCC region. By applying a panel nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework to data spanning 2003–2020, we account for potential nonlinearities in this relationship. Our results show a negative association between economic complexity and CO2 emissions in the long run, with the effects being more pronounced in countries with higher institutional quality. However, positive changes in economic complexity exhibit consistent positive correlations with CO2 emissions over time. This suggests that countries exhibiting economic complexity beyond what is anticipated given their income level tend to experience accelerated growth compared to those deemed 'overly affluent' relative to their economic complexity. Our study provides vital insights for GCC policymakers, emphasizing that strategies to increase economic complexity should be prioritized to achieve sustainable development by investing in technology, innovation, and research.

ISSN

2950-5240

Publisher

Elsevier BV

Volume

10

Disciplines

Computer Sciences | Environmental Sciences

Keywords

CO2 emissions, Economic complexity, GCC economies, Institutional quality, Panel nonlinear ARDL

Scopus ID

105040912022

Indexed in Scopus

yes

Open Access

no

Link to Full Text

Share

COinS