Modelling route-level interzonal travel time using GPS trajectories

Author First name, Last name, Institution

• Muhammad Faiq Ahmed, Universiteit Hasselt
• Tom Bellemans, Universiteit Hasselt
• Fatma Outay, Zayed UniversityFollow
• Muhammad Ahmed, NED University of Engineering & Technology
• Afzal Ahmed, University of Leeds
• Feng Liu, Universiteit Hasselt
• Muhammad Adnan, Universiteit Hasselt

Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Source of Publication

Procedia Computer Science

Publication Date

1-1-2026

Abstract

Activity-based models (ABMs) require accurate travel-time estimates for accessibility calculations, yet many implementations rely on static routing outputs that fail to capture temporal congestion dynamics due to limited high-resolution data. This paper develops route-level travel-speed prediction models using GPS trajectory data from 48 vehicles in Flanders, Belgium. GPS trajectories are integrated with OpenStreetMap and land-use data through destination-based segmentation, in which trips from fixed origins are cumulatively segmented at zone crossings. To capture behavioural differences by trip length, separate Gamma regression models are estimated for short (≤5 km) and long (>5 km) trips using temporal, network, and spatial variables. The models achieve strong predictive performance (pseudo R² = 0.57 for short trips; 0.85 for long trips). Results show distinct congestion patterns: short trips peak around 9 AM with substantial night time speed recovery, while long trips exhibit weaker temporal variation and afternoon peaks. Road hierarchy effects are stronger for long trips, whereas intersection effects dominate short trips. The proposed approach enables the integration of dynamic, time-dependent accessibility measures into ABM frameworks.

DOI Link

10.1016/j.procs.2026.04.050

ISSN

1877-0509

Publisher

Elsevier BV

Volume

280

First Page

390

Last Page

397

Disciplines

Computer Sciences

Keywords

Activity-based models, Destination-based segmentation, GPS trajectories, Temporal modeling, Travel time prediction

Scopus ID

105042443511

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Recommended Citation

Ahmed, Muhammad Faiq; Bellemans, Tom; Outay, Fatma; Ahmed, Muhammad; Ahmed, Afzal; Liu, Feng; and Adnan, Muhammad, "Modelling route-level interzonal travel time using GPS trajectories" (2026). All Works. 8104.
https://zuscholars.zu.ac.ae/works/8104

Indexed in Scopus

yes

Open Access

yes

Open Access Type

Gold: This publication is openly available in an open access journal/series